World Cup 2026

World Cup 2026: the Golmetria model

We simulate the whole tournament 20,000 times — from the group stage to the final — to estimate each of the 48 nations' chances.

Canada, Mexico & United States · 48 nations · 20000 simulations · updated 2026-07-28

Projection conditioned on real results: 104 matches played through 2026-07-19.

Who lifts the trophy

Chance of being world champion.

Each bar is the share of the 20,000 simulations in which the team ends up champion.

Reach the final

Chance of playing the final.

There are two places in the final, so these odds run well above the title odds.

Reach the semifinals

Chance of making the last four.

Reaching the last four; the dark horses show up more strongly at this stage.

Most likely finals

the chance of seeing each matchup in the final, across 20,000 simulations

Argentina × Spain57.8%
England × Spain13.6%
Colombia × Spain8.7%
Argentina × Netherlands3.7%
Argentina × France2.1%
Argentina × Germany2.0%
Norway × Spain1.2%
Senegal × Spain1.0%
England × Netherlands1.0%
Argentina × Ecuador0.8%

Add the two sides of a matchup for each team's chance of reaching the final.

The 12 groups

chance of reaching the knockout — the top two of each group plus the eight best third-placed teams advance

Group AAdvance

Mexico100%
South Africa100%
South Korea0%
Czech Republic0%

Group BAdvance

Switzerland100%
Canada100%
Bosnia & Herzegovina100%
Qatar0%

Group CAdvance

Brazil100%
Morocco100%
Scotland0%
Haiti0%

Group DAdvance

USA100%
Paraguay100%
Australia100%
Turkey0%

Group EAdvance

Germany100%
Ecuador100%
Ivory Coast100%
Curaçao0%

Group FAdvance

Netherlands100%
Japan100%
Sweden100%
Tunisia0%

Group GAdvance

Belgium100%
Egypt100%
Iran0%
New Zealand0%

Group HAdvance

Spain100%
Cape Verde100%
Uruguay0%
Saudi Arabia0%

Group IAdvance

France100%
Norway100%
Senegal100%
Iraq0%

Group JAdvance

Argentina100%
Austria100%
Algeria100%
Jordan0%

Group KAdvance

Colombia100%
Portugal100%
DR Congo100%
Uzbekistan0%

Group LAdvance

England100%
Croatia100%
Ghana100%
Panama0%

The top two of each group advance, plus the eight best third-placed teams.

Match forecasts

the model's read on every group-stage game (neutral venue)

Thu 11 Jun

Match	Home	Draw	Away	Goals (xG)	Over 2.5
Mexico×South AfricaA	65%	22%	13%	1.9–0.7	47%
South Korea×Czech RepublicA	38%	27%	35%	1.3–1.3	47%

Fri 12 Jun

Match	Home	Draw	Away	Goals (xG)	Over 2.5
Canada×Bosnia & HerzegovinaB	53%	26%	22%	1.7–0.9	47%
USA×ParaguayD	29%	27%	44%	1.1–1.5	47%

Sat 13 Jun

Match	Home	Draw	Away	Goals (xG)	Over 2.5
Qatar×SwitzerlandB	7%	19%	74%	0.5–2.1	47%
Brazil×MoroccoC	50%	26%	24%	1.6–1.0	47%
Haiti×ScotlandC	21%	25%	54%	0.9–1.7	47%
Australia×TurkeyD	27%	26%	47%	1.1–1.5	47%

Sun 14 Jun

Match	Home	Draw	Away	Goals (xG)	Over 2.5
Germany×CuraçaoE	75%	18%	6%	2.2–0.4	47%
Netherlands×JapanF	39%	27%	34%	1.4–1.2	47%
Ivory Coast×EcuadorE	19%	25%	56%	0.9–1.7	47%
Sweden×TunisiaF	43%	27%	30%	1.4–1.2	47%

Mon 15 Jun

Match	Home	Draw	Away	Goals (xG)	Over 2.5
Spain×Cape VerdeH	81%	16%	3%	2.3–0.3	47%
Belgium×EgyptG	52%	26%	23%	1.6–1.0	47%
Saudi Arabia×UruguayH	14%	23%	63%	0.7–1.9	47%
Iran×New ZealandG	53%	25%	21%	1.7–0.9	47%

Tue 16 Jun

Match	Home	Draw	Away	Goals (xG)	Over 2.5
France×SenegalI	52%	26%	22%	1.6–0.9	47%
Iraq×NorwayI	16%	24%	60%	0.8–1.8	47%
Argentina×AlgeriaJ	65%	22%	13%	1.9–0.7	47%
Austria×JordanJ	48%	26%	26%	1.6–1.0	47%

Wed 17 Jun

Match	Home	Draw	Away	Goals (xG)	Over 2.5
Portugal×DR CongoK	62%	23%	14%	1.9–0.7	47%
England×CroatiaL	45%	27%	28%	1.5–1.1	47%
Ghana×PanamaL	20%	25%	54%	0.9–1.7	47%
Uzbekistan×ColombiaK	18%	25%	57%	0.8–1.8	47%

Thu 18 Jun

Match	Home	Draw	Away	Goals (xG)	Over 2.5
Czech Republic×South AfricaA	54%	25%	21%	1.7–0.9	47%
Switzerland×Bosnia & HerzegovinaB	61%	24%	16%	1.8–0.8	47%
Canada×QatarB	66%	22%	12%	2.0–0.6	47%
Mexico×South KoreaA	46%	27%	28%	1.5–1.1	47%

Fri 19 Jun

Match	Home	Draw	Away	Goals (xG)	Over 2.5
USA×AustraliaD	33%	27%	40%	1.2–1.4	47%
Scotland×MoroccoC	32%	27%	41%	1.2–1.4	47%
Turkey×ParaguayD	42%	27%	31%	1.4–1.2	47%
Brazil×HaitiC	71%	20%	9%	2.1–0.5	47%

Sat 20 Jun

Match	Home	Draw	Away	Goals (xG)	Over 2.5
Netherlands×SwedenF	55%	25%	20%	1.7–0.9	47%
Germany×Ivory CoastE	55%	25%	20%	1.7–0.9	47%
Ecuador×CuraçaoE	76%	18%	6%	2.2–0.4	47%
Tunisia×JapanF	17%	24%	58%	0.8–1.8	47%

Sun 21 Jun

Match	Home	Draw	Away	Goals (xG)	Over 2.5
Spain×Saudi ArabiaH	82%	15%	3%	2.4–0.3	46%
Belgium×IranG	46%	27%	28%	1.5–1.1	47%
Uruguay×Cape VerdeH	62%	23%	15%	1.9–0.7	47%
New Zealand×EgyptG	26%	26%	47%	1.1–1.5	47%

Mon 22 Jun

Match	Home	Draw	Away	Goals (xG)	Over 2.5
Argentina×AustriaJ	59%	24%	17%	1.8–0.8	47%
France×IraqI	72%	20%	8%	2.1–0.5	47%
Norway×SenegalI	40%	27%	33%	1.4–1.2	47%
Jordan×AlgeriaJ	31%	27%	42%	1.2–1.4	47%

Tue 23 Jun

Match	Home	Draw	Away	Goals (xG)	Over 2.5
Portugal×UzbekistanK	58%	24%	18%	1.8–0.8	47%
England×GhanaL	76%	18%	6%	2.2–0.4	47%
Panama×CroatiaL	24%	26%	50%	1.0–1.6	47%
Colombia×DR CongoK	62%	23%	15%	1.9–0.7	47%

Wed 24 Jun

Match	Home	Draw	Away	Goals (xG)	Over 2.5
Switzerland×CanadaB	44%	27%	29%	1.5–1.1	47%
Bosnia & Herzegovina×QatarB	50%	26%	24%	1.6–1.0	47%
Scotland×BrazilC	21%	25%	54%	0.9–1.7	47%
Morocco×HaitiC	58%	24%	18%	1.8–0.8	47%
Czech Republic×MexicoA	26%	26%	47%	1.1–1.5	47%
South Africa×South KoreaA	19%	25%	56%	0.9–1.7	47%

Thu 25 Jun

Match	Home	Draw	Away	Goals (xG)	Over 2.5
Curaçao×Ivory CoastE	18%	25%	57%	0.8–1.8	47%
Ecuador×GermanyE	37%	27%	36%	1.3–1.3	47%
Japan×SwedenF	52%	26%	22%	1.6–0.9	47%
Tunisia×NetherlandsF	15%	23%	61%	0.7–1.9	47%
Turkey×USAD	50%	26%	24%	1.6–1.0	47%
Paraguay×AustraliaD	41%	27%	32%	1.4–1.2	47%

Fri 26 Jun

Match	Home	Draw	Away	Goals (xG)	Over 2.5
Norway×FranceI	26%	26%	48%	1.0–1.6	47%
Senegal×IraqI	56%	25%	19%	1.7–0.9	47%
Uruguay×SpainH	18%	24%	58%	0.8–1.8	47%
Cape Verde×Saudi ArabiaH	37%	27%	36%	1.3–1.3	47%
Egypt×IranG	31%	27%	42%	1.2–1.4	47%
New Zealand×BelgiumG	14%	23%	62%	0.7–1.9	47%

Sat 27 Jun

Match	Home	Draw	Away	Goals (xG)	Over 2.5
Panama×EnglandL	17%	24%	59%	0.8–1.8	47%
Croatia×GhanaL	68%	21%	11%	2.0–0.6	47%
Colombia×PortugalK	36%	27%	37%	1.3–1.3	47%
DR Congo×UzbekistanK	32%	27%	41%	1.2–1.4	47%
Algeria×AustriaJ	31%	27%	42%	1.2–1.4	47%
Jordan×ArgentinaJ	9%	20%	70%	0.5–2.1	47%

The model's read game by game: each result's probability and the expected goals.

Luck vs. merit (xG)

Played matches — goals compared with Expected Goals

The feed hasn't carried xG for World Cup matches yet — for now the table shows goals only.

Attack and defence across played matches

Team	MP	GF	GA
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England	8	20	12
🇫🇷 France	8	20	10
🇦🇷 Argentina	8	19	8
🇧🇪 Belgium	6	14	7
🇪🇸 Spain	8	14	1
🇳🇴 Norway	6	13	11
🇩🇪 Germany	4	11	5
🇳🇱 Netherlands	4	11	5
🇺🇸 USA	5	11	8
🇧🇷 Brazil	5	10	4
🇲🇽 Mexico	5	10	3
🇲🇦 Morocco	6	10	6
🇸🇳 Senegal	4	10	9
🇨🇭 Switzerland	6	10	6
🇨🇦 Canada	5	9	6
🇪🇬 Egypt	5	8	7
🇯🇵 Japan	4	8	5
🇵🇹 Portugal	5	8	3
🇸🇪 Sweden	4	7	10
🇦🇹 Austria	4	6	9
🇭🇷 Croatia	4	6	7
🇩🇿 Algeria	4	5	9
🇧🇦 Bosnia & Herzegovina	4	5	8
🇨🇴 Colombia	5	5	1
🇨🇩 DR Congo	4	5	5
🇨🇮 Ivory Coast	4	5	4
🇨🇻 Cape Verde	4	4	5
🇳🇿 New Zealand	3	4	10
🇦🇺 Australia	4	3	3
🇮🇷 Iran	3	3	3
🇯🇴 Jordan	3	3	8
🇵🇾 Paraguay	5	3	6
🇹🇷 Turkey	3	3	5
🇺🇾 Uruguay	3	3	4
🇨🇿 Czech Republic	3	2	6
🇪🇨 Ecuador	4	2	4
🇬🇭 Ghana	4	2	3
🇭🇹 Haiti	3	2	8
🇶🇦 Qatar	3	2	10
🇿🇦 South Africa	4	2	4
🇰🇷 South Korea	3	2	3
🇹🇳 Tunisia	3	2	12
🇺🇿 Uzbekistan	3	2	11
🇨🇼 Curaçao	3	1	9
🇮🇶 Iraq	3	1	12
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia	3	1	5
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotland	3	1	4
🇵🇦 Panama	3	0	4

Luck regresses: teams far above their xG tend to fall back; those far below usually improve.

The odds come from a Monte-Carlo simulation: each nation's strength (an Elo rating, at a neutral venue) sets the expected score of every match, played thousands of times through FIFA's official bracket. How the model works → Methodology

Statistical analysis, not betting advice. 18+. Structure and national-team strength from public sources: World Football Elo Ratings · openfootball/worldcup.json.