World Cup 2026

World Cup 2026: the Golmetria model

We simulate the whole tournament 20,000 times — from the group stage to the final — to estimate each of the 48 nations' chances.

Canada, Mexico & United States · 48 nations · 20000 simulations · updated 2026-06-12

Projection conditioned on real results: 2 matches played through 2026-06-12. Includes xG (expected goals) for 2 of those matches.

Next games

Friday 12 JuneLive odds (consensus)

Model vs market — where the value is.

BFri 12 Jun · 15:00 UTC-4consensus

Canada×Bosnia & Herzegovina

Result (1X2)

Model

53%26%22%

Market

52%27%21%

	Model	Market	Odds	Edge
Canada	53%	52%	1.89	+0.5
Draw	26%	27%	3.65	−1.7
Bosnia & Herzegovina	22%	21%	4.90	+1.1

Goals 2.5

Model

47%53%

Market

42%58%

	Model	Market	Odds	Edge
Over 2.5	47%	42%	2.35	+4.9value
Under 2.5	53%	58%	1.68	−4.9

DFri 12 Jun · 18:00 UTC-7consensus

USA×Paraguay

Result (1X2)

Model

29%27%44%

Market

47%29%24%

	Model	Market	Odds	Edge
USA	29%	47%	2.12	−17.8
Draw	27%	29%	3.45	−2.0
Paraguay	44%	24%	4.20	+19.8value

Goals 2.5

Model

47%53%

Market

42%58%

	Model	Market	Odds	Edge
Over 2.5	47%	42%	2.50	+5.3value
Under 2.5	53%	58%	1.67	−5.3

Who lifts the trophy

Chance of being world champion.

Each bar is the share of the 20,000 simulations in which the team ends up champion.

Reach the final

Chance of playing the final.

There are two places in the final, so these odds run well above the title odds.

Reach the semifinals

Chance of making the last four.

Reaching the last four; the dark horses show up more strongly at this stage.

Model vs Market

where our model disagrees with the betting market

Title edge: model − market

Green: our model gives more chance than the market. Red: the market gives more.

The longest bars show where the model and the market disagree most.

Public reference market odds (bookmaker margin removed), as of 2026-06-02 — not live prices. Statistical analysis, not betting advice. 18+.

Most likely finals

the chance of seeing each matchup in the final, across 20,000 simulations

Argentina × Spain5.3%
England × Spain2.6%
Argentina × France2.4%
France × Spain2.0%
Portugal × Spain1.9%
Colombia × Spain1.9%
Brazil × Spain1.7%
England × France1.3%
Croatia × Spain1.1%
Spain × Uruguay1.1%

Add the two sides of a matchup for each team's chance of reaching the final.

The 12 groups

chance of reaching the knockout — the top two of each group plus the eight best third-placed teams advance

Group AAdvance

Mexico97%
South Korea95%
Czech Republic57%
South Africa22%

Group BAdvance

Switzerland93%
Canada85%
Bosnia & Herzegovina59%
Qatar28%

Group CAdvance

Brazil91%
Morocco76%
Scotland69%
Haiti32%

Group DAdvance

Turkey81%
Paraguay71%
Australia63%
USA56%

Group EAdvance

Ecuador91%
Germany91%
Ivory Coast65%
Curaçao19%

Group FAdvance

Netherlands86%
Japan83%
Sweden57%
Tunisia42%

Group GAdvance

Belgium87%
Iran76%
Egypt65%
New Zealand42%

Group HAdvance

Spain99%
Uruguay85%
Cape Verde36%
Saudi Arabia35%

Group IAdvance

France91%
Norway78%
Senegal71%
Iraq28%

Group JAdvance

Argentina95%
Austria69%
Algeria57%
Jordan44%

Group KAdvance

Portugal88%
Colombia86%
Uzbekistan52%
DR Congo41%

Group LAdvance

England93%
Croatia85%
Panama63%
Ghana24%

The top two of each group advance, plus the eight best third-placed teams.

Match forecasts

the model's read on every group-stage game (neutral venue)

Thu 11 Jun

Match	Home	Draw	Away	Goals (xG)	Over 2.5
Mexico×South AfricaA	65%	22%	13%	1.9–0.7	47%
South Korea×Czech RepublicA	38%	27%	35%	1.3–1.3	47%

Fri 12 Jun

Match	Home	Draw	Away	Goals (xG)	Over 2.5
Canada×Bosnia & HerzegovinaB	53%	26%	22%	1.7–0.9	47%
USA×ParaguayD	29%	27%	44%	1.1–1.5	47%

Sat 13 Jun

Match	Home	Draw	Away	Goals (xG)	Over 2.5
Qatar×SwitzerlandB	7%	19%	74%	0.5–2.1	47%
Brazil×MoroccoC	50%	26%	24%	1.6–1.0	47%
Haiti×ScotlandC	21%	25%	54%	0.9–1.7	47%
Australia×TurkeyD	27%	26%	47%	1.1–1.5	47%

Sun 14 Jun

Match	Home	Draw	Away	Goals (xG)	Over 2.5
Germany×CuraçaoE	75%	18%	6%	2.2–0.4	47%
Netherlands×JapanF	39%	27%	34%	1.4–1.2	47%
Ivory Coast×EcuadorE	19%	25%	56%	0.9–1.7	47%
Sweden×TunisiaF	43%	27%	30%	1.4–1.2	47%

Mon 15 Jun

Match	Home	Draw	Away	Goals (xG)	Over 2.5
Spain×Cape VerdeH	81%	16%	3%	2.3–0.3	47%
Belgium×EgyptG	52%	26%	23%	1.6–1.0	47%
Saudi Arabia×UruguayH	14%	23%	63%	0.7–1.9	47%
Iran×New ZealandG	53%	25%	21%	1.7–0.9	47%

Tue 16 Jun

Match	Home	Draw	Away	Goals (xG)	Over 2.5
France×SenegalI	52%	26%	22%	1.6–0.9	47%
Iraq×NorwayI	16%	24%	60%	0.8–1.8	47%
Argentina×AlgeriaJ	65%	22%	13%	1.9–0.7	47%
Austria×JordanJ	48%	26%	26%	1.6–1.0	47%

Wed 17 Jun

Match	Home	Draw	Away	Goals (xG)	Over 2.5
Portugal×DR CongoK	62%	23%	14%	1.9–0.7	47%
England×CroatiaL	45%	27%	28%	1.5–1.1	47%
Ghana×PanamaL	20%	25%	54%	0.9–1.7	47%
Uzbekistan×ColombiaK	18%	25%	57%	0.8–1.8	47%

Thu 18 Jun

Match	Home	Draw	Away	Goals (xG)	Over 2.5
Czech Republic×South AfricaA	54%	25%	21%	1.7–0.9	47%
Switzerland×Bosnia & HerzegovinaB	61%	24%	16%	1.8–0.8	47%
Canada×QatarB	66%	22%	12%	2.0–0.6	47%
Mexico×South KoreaA	46%	27%	28%	1.5–1.1	47%

Fri 19 Jun

Match	Home	Draw	Away	Goals (xG)	Over 2.5
USA×AustraliaD	33%	27%	40%	1.2–1.4	47%
Scotland×MoroccoC	32%	27%	41%	1.2–1.4	47%
Turkey×ParaguayD	42%	27%	31%	1.4–1.2	47%
Brazil×HaitiC	71%	20%	9%	2.1–0.5	47%

Sat 20 Jun

Match	Home	Draw	Away	Goals (xG)	Over 2.5
Netherlands×SwedenF	55%	25%	20%	1.7–0.9	47%
Germany×Ivory CoastE	55%	25%	20%	1.7–0.9	47%
Ecuador×CuraçaoE	76%	18%	6%	2.2–0.4	47%
Tunisia×JapanF	17%	24%	58%	0.8–1.8	47%

Sun 21 Jun

Match	Home	Draw	Away	Goals (xG)	Over 2.5
Spain×Saudi ArabiaH	82%	15%	3%	2.4–0.3	46%
Belgium×IranG	46%	27%	28%	1.5–1.1	47%
Uruguay×Cape VerdeH	62%	23%	15%	1.9–0.7	47%
New Zealand×EgyptG	26%	26%	47%	1.1–1.5	47%

Mon 22 Jun

Match	Home	Draw	Away	Goals (xG)	Over 2.5
Argentina×AustriaJ	59%	24%	17%	1.8–0.8	47%
France×IraqI	72%	20%	8%	2.1–0.5	47%
Norway×SenegalI	40%	27%	33%	1.4–1.2	47%
Jordan×AlgeriaJ	31%	27%	42%	1.2–1.4	47%

Tue 23 Jun

Match	Home	Draw	Away	Goals (xG)	Over 2.5
Portugal×UzbekistanK	58%	24%	18%	1.8–0.8	47%
England×GhanaL	76%	18%	6%	2.2–0.4	47%
Panama×CroatiaL	24%	26%	50%	1.0–1.6	47%
Colombia×DR CongoK	62%	23%	15%	1.9–0.7	47%

Wed 24 Jun

Match	Home	Draw	Away	Goals (xG)	Over 2.5
Switzerland×CanadaB	44%	27%	29%	1.5–1.1	47%
Bosnia & Herzegovina×QatarB	50%	26%	24%	1.6–1.0	47%
Scotland×BrazilC	21%	25%	54%	0.9–1.7	47%
Morocco×HaitiC	58%	24%	18%	1.8–0.8	47%
Czech Republic×MexicoA	26%	26%	47%	1.1–1.5	47%
South Africa×South KoreaA	19%	25%	56%	0.9–1.7	47%

Thu 25 Jun

Match	Home	Draw	Away	Goals (xG)	Over 2.5
Curaçao×Ivory CoastE	18%	25%	57%	0.8–1.8	47%
Ecuador×GermanyE	37%	27%	36%	1.3–1.3	47%
Japan×SwedenF	52%	26%	22%	1.6–0.9	47%
Tunisia×NetherlandsF	15%	23%	61%	0.7–1.9	47%
Turkey×USAD	50%	26%	24%	1.6–1.0	47%
Paraguay×AustraliaD	41%	27%	32%	1.4–1.2	47%

Fri 26 Jun

Match	Home	Draw	Away	Goals (xG)	Over 2.5
Norway×FranceI	26%	26%	48%	1.0–1.6	47%
Senegal×IraqI	56%	25%	19%	1.7–0.9	47%
Uruguay×SpainH	18%	24%	58%	0.8–1.8	47%
Cape Verde×Saudi ArabiaH	37%	27%	36%	1.3–1.3	47%
Egypt×IranG	31%	27%	42%	1.2–1.4	47%
New Zealand×BelgiumG	14%	23%	62%	0.7–1.9	47%

Sat 27 Jun

Match	Home	Draw	Away	Goals (xG)	Over 2.5
Panama×EnglandL	17%	24%	59%	0.8–1.8	47%
Croatia×GhanaL	68%	21%	11%	2.0–0.6	47%
Colombia×PortugalK	36%	27%	37%	1.3–1.3	47%
DR Congo×UzbekistanK	32%	27%	41%	1.2–1.4	47%
Algeria×AustriaJ	31%	27%	42%	1.2–1.4	47%
Jordan×ArgentinaJ	9%	20%	70%	0.5–2.1	47%

The model's read game by game: each result's probability and the expected goals.

Luck vs. merit (xG)

Played matches — goals compared with Expected Goals

Goals − xG by team

Above zero: the team scored more than the chances it created (hot finishing — or luck). Below: it created more than it converted.

Attack and defence across played matches

Team	MP	GF	GA	xG for	xG against	Goals − xG
🇰🇷 South Korea	1	2	1	1.7	0.9	+0.3
🇲🇽 Mexico	1	2	0	1.3	0.1	+0.7
🇨🇿 Czech Republic	1	1	2	0.9	1.7	+0.1
🇿🇦 South Africa	1	0	2	0.1	1.3	-0.1

Luck regresses: teams far above their xG tend to fall back; those far below usually improve.

Odds Board — World Cup

5 licensed books

Best available price highlighted across the licensed operators (bet.br). Always compare — the difference is your margin.

Links go to the licensed books · Content is analysis, not a guarantee · 18+

Sample layout — illustrative odds, not real prices. Real prices appear once the licensed (bet.br) books price the World Cup fixtures.

Match / Market	Betano	bet365	Superbet	Betnacional	Sportingbet
Brazil × Morocco Group C · Brazil win	1.62	1.60	1.65	1.63	—
Spain × Cape Verde Group H · Spain win	1.30	1.28	1.32	—	1.31
France × Senegal Group I · France win	1.85	1.88	1.83	1.86	1.84
Argentina × Algeria Group J · Argentina win	1.45	1.47	—	1.46	1.44

The odds come from a Monte-Carlo simulation: each nation's strength (an Elo rating, at a neutral venue) sets the expected score of every match, played thousands of times through FIFA's official bracket. How the model works → Methodology

Statistical analysis, not betting advice. 18+. Structure and national-team strength from public sources: World Football Elo Ratings · openfootball/worldcup.json.