Index

Golmetria Index & season projection

Our strength rating (Elo with an xG-and-goals blend) next to the real table and a Monte-Carlo projection of the Brasileirão.

Season 2026 · 177 matches analysed (xG on 177) · 5000 simulations · updated 2026-06-08

#	Club	Index	MP	Pts	GD	xPts	P10–P90	Title	Liberta	Releg
1	Palmeiras	1629	18	41	+17	73.8	63–85	48%	91%	0%
2	Flamengo	1680	17	34	+15	70.8	60–82	34%	84%	0%
3	Bragantino	1616	18	29	+6	61.1	51–72	6%	45%	1%
4	Athletico PR	1566	18	30	+6	60.2	49–71	4%	40%	1%
5	Fluminense	1490	18	31	+5	57.8	47–69	3%	28%	3%
6	Bahia	1523	17	26	+2	55.8	45–67	2%	23%	6%
7	Cruzeiro	1546	18	24	-4	53.2	42–64	1%	14%	9%
8	Atlético Mineiro	1517	18	24	-1	52.4	42–63	0%	13%	10%
9	São Paulo	1500	18	25	+3	52.4	42–63	1%	13%	10%
10	Internacional	1557	18	21	-1	50.5	40–61	0%	9%	14%
11	Corinthians	1463	18	24	-1	50.1	40–61	0%	8%	16%
12	Coritiba	1413	18	26	0	50.1	40–61	0%	7%	16%
13	Vitória	1456	17	22	-4	49.2	38–60	0%	6%	20%
14	Botafogo	1438	17	22	0	49.0	38–60	0%	7%	20%
15	Vasco da Gama	1502	18	20	-7	47.3	37–58	0%	4%	26%
16	Santos	1463	18	21	-3	47.0	36–58	0%	4%	27%
17	Grêmio	1415	18	21	-3	45.2	35–56	0%	3%	35%
18	Mirassol	1433	17	16	-6	41.7	31–53	0%	1%	50%
19	Remo	1408	18	18	-8	41.7	32–52	0%	1%	51%
20	Chapecoense	1385	17	9	-16	32.7	22–44	0%	0%	85%

xPts = expected points at season's end (P10–P90 is the likely range). Title / Liberta / Releg = probability of the title, a Libertadores place, and relegation. How the model works → Methodology

Where each club finishes — probability by final position (5000 simulations)

less likelymore likelyLibertadoresRelegation

Statistical analysis, not betting advice. 18+.