Index

Golmetria Index & season projection

Our strength rating (Elo with an xG-and-goals blend) next to the real table and a Monte-Carlo projection of the Brasileirão.

Season 2026 · 199 matches analysed (xG on 199) · 5000 simulations · updated 2026-07-27

#	Club	Index	MP	Pts	GD	xPts	P10–P90	Title	Liberta	Releg
1	Palmeiras	1608	20	44	+18	72.7	63–83	43%	92%	0%
2	Flamengo	1670	19	38	+19	70.9	61–81	35%	87%	0%
3	Athletico PR	1624	20	36	+9	65.3	56–75	12%	66%	0%
4	Bragantino	1597	20	31	+6	59.2	49–69	3%	36%	1%
5	Fluminense	1507	20	33	+5	57.8	48–68	2%	27%	2%
6	Bahia	1550	20	31	+4	57.2	47–67	2%	25%	2%
7	Atlético Mineiro	1520	20	28	0	53.8	44–63	1%	13%	6%
8	Cruzeiro	1541	20	27	-4	52.9	43–63	1%	11%	8%
9	Botafogo	1464	20	29	+2	52.4	43–62	0%	10%	7%
10	Corinthians	1485	20	28	+2	52.4	43–62	0%	10%	8%
11	São Paulo	1469	20	26	+2	50.0	40–60	0%	6%	14%
12	Coritiba	1428	20	27	-2	49.4	40–59	0%	5%	16%
13	Vitória	1456	20	26	-5	49.1	40–59	0%	4%	17%
14	Internacional	1532	20	21	-4	47.1	37–57	0%	3%	23%
15	Vasco da Gama	1502	20	21	-8	45.4	36–55	0%	2%	31%
16	Santos	1463	20	22	-4	44.9	35–55	0%	1%	33%
17	Mirassol	1449	19	20	-5	43.8	34–54	0%	1%	40%
18	Grêmio	1393	20	22	-4	42.9	34–53	0%	1%	43%
19	Remo	1374	20	21	-9	41.1	32–51	0%	0%	56%
20	Chapecoense	1369	20	10	-22	29.8	21–40	0%	0%	94%

xPts = expected points at season's end (P10–P90 is the likely range). Title / Liberta / Releg = probability of the title, a Libertadores place, and relegation. How the model works → Methodology

Where each club finishes — probability by final position (5000 simulations)

less likelymore likelyLibertadoresRelegation

Statistical analysis, not betting advice. 18+.