South Africa Danced Into the Azteca — But the Numbers Tell a Very Different Story
Mexico arrive at the Azteca in red-hot form for the 2026 World Cup opener, while South Africa have not won a single game all year. Here is what is at stake.
South Africa's delegation danced their way into the Estadio Azteca on Thursday — but the numbers behind the celebration tell a very different story. The South African side have played five matches in 2026 without a single win: two defeats and three draws, including their last two warm-up games against Nicaragua and Jamaica.
Mexico, meanwhile, arrived at the stadium minutes later to a rapturous welcome from the home supporters. The hosts have racked up six wins and two draws in 2026, with no defeats. Their stated goal is to reach the quarter-finals — something that has only happened in 1970 and 1986, the other two times the country has hosted a World Cup. Mexico is the only nation to host the tournament three times.
The fixture carries additional historical weight: it is the first time a World Cup opening match has been repeated between the same two sides. In 2010, Mexico and South Africa inaugurated the tournament on South African soil with a 1–1 draw.
The Golmetria model projects Mexico as the team with the greatest potential in Group A, with a 44.21% chance of finishing top and an 87.33% probability of advancing to the knockout stage. For South Africa, the pre-tournament crisis makes the task of overcoming a motivated, in-form host nation even harder.
The market also places both co-hosts close together in the title picture: implied probabilities stand at 1.25% for Mexico and 1.35% for the United States. What happens at the Azteca today could set the tone for the entire Group A — and reveal whether South Africa's dance was confidence or camouflage.