Human-reviewed analysis · We don't sell picksGolmetria exclusive analysis
Football in numbers

GOLMETRIA

← Back to analysis

Argentina have never won their opening game as defending champions — and the record is haunting before the Algeria clash

In both previous tournaments where Argentina entered as reigning world champions, they failed to win the opener. That record looms large ahead of their Copa 2026 clash with Algeria.

Original Golmetria data graphic on World Cup results, in a premium data-journalism style; no real photos, identifiable faces, or club crests.

Being world champions comes at a price — and Argentina pay it every time they try to defend the title.

This Tuesday at 10 p.m. (Brasília time), Messi's side face Algeria in Kansas City. It sounds straightforward. But history says otherwise: in both previous tournaments where Argentina took the field as reigning champions, they left without a win.

In 1982, four years after lifting the trophy on home soil, the Albiceleste fell at the very first hurdle. Vandenbergh scored the only goal of the match and Belgium took the points. Argentina then lost to Brazil in the second round and were eliminated.

In 1990, it was worse — and far more dramatic. A packed San Siro watched Omam-Biyik find the net as Cameroon knocked Maradona's side out 1–0. Argentina did reach the final, but left as runners-up.

And the 2022 World Cup? It started in the worst possible way: a Saudi Arabia comeback, 2–1. Argentina recovered, went all the way — and lifted the trophy. But the opening was a scare.

Other champions have suffered too. Spain were hammered 5–1 by the Netherlands in 2014. Germany lost to Mexico in 2018. Italy drew with Paraguay in 2010. Only France, in 2022, opened their tournament with a rout — 4–1 over Australia — and broke that negative streak, according to ge.

Brazil, for their part, have never lost an opening game as reigning world champions. Their only stumble was a 0–0 draw against Yugoslavia in 1974.

The Golmetria model gives Argentina a 13.45% chance of winning the title — a figure that places them among the favourites, but far from certainties. The market is even more sceptical: odds of +1000 for Argentina to lift the trophy.

History weighs heavy. But Messi has rewritten history before. The question is: will he need one more scare to get there?