Model Gives Brazil 91.22% to Advance — but Morocco Arrive on 29-Game Unbeaten Run
Brazil opens the 2026 World Cup against Morocco, who are on a 29-game unbeaten run. The Golmetria model gives Brazil a 91.22% chance of advancing.
Brazil opens its 2026 World Cup campaign on Saturday at 7 p.m. in New Jersey against Morocco — a side that arrives at the tournament on a 29-game unbeaten streak. The match is the opening fixture of Group C.
The weight of the opening game has analysts on edge. Current champions Argentina lost 2–1 to Saudi Arabia in their first match at the previous World Cup — an episode widely recalled as a reminder that no World Cup opener is straightforward, regardless of who the favorites are.
The Golmetria model gives Brazil a 51.94% chance of winning Group C and a 91.22% probability of advancing to the knockout stage. Morocco, meanwhile, have a 24.59% chance of finishing top of the group and a 75.91% chance of reaching the round of sixteen. The market, for its part, implies an 8.67% probability of Brazil lifting the trophy — a figure above the 4.66% calculated by the model for the same outcome.
Argentina, in Group J, open their tournament on the 16th against Algeria at 10 p.m. in Kansas City. The model projects a 13.43% chance of the title for the defending champions.