Brazil heavy favourite against Norway
From Opta to Nate Silver, models and analysts point to Brazilian favouritism in the Round of 16. Haaland is the main risk factor.
The World Cup's leading statistical models converge on Brazil vs Norway, Sunday at MetLife Stadium: Opta's supercomputer gives the Seleção a 64% chance of advancing, as reported by Exame; PELE, Nate Silver's model at Silver Bulletin, calculates 63%; and Golmetria, 61%. Different methodologies arriving at very similar answers.
The analysts follow suit. In editorial predictions for the Round of 16 — from tactical-analysis sites to picks columns in the United States and Europe — the pattern repeats: Brazil through, with explicit respect for the opponent. The common reading cites Brazil's squad depth and its knack for deciding big matches, shown in the late comeback against Japan in the previous round.
The main risk factor identified is Erling Haaland. Norway arrive from a win over Ivory Coast, have scored in all four of their games at this World Cup, and pair their centre-forward with Martin Ødegaard's organisation in midfield. Some analysts consider extra time a realistic scenario: in the models' simulations, roughly one in three scenarios ends without Brazil advancing.
There is also the absence factor. Without Lucas Paquetá, out of the tournament with a thigh injury, Carlo Ancelotti must reorganise his midfield against a side built on rapid transitions.
The overall picture, then, is one of clear but not absolute favouritism. In the analysts' reading, Brazil's squad depth favours them over 90 or 120 minutes; Norway's attacking edge is the main counterweight.
The match kicks off Sunday at 5pm Brasília time. Analysis, not a guarantee — in a one-off match, favouritism does not determine the result.