Brazil are favourites against Norway, but the Elo gap might surprise a lot of people
The model gives Brazil a 63.6% chance of reaching the round of 16 — but Norway are not a side to be taken lightly
Favourites, yes. A free ride, no.
Brazil and Norway meet on 5 July in New York/New Jersey in one of the most intriguing round-of-16 ties of the 2026 World Cup. The Marca model gives Brazil a 63.6% probability of advancing — and Norway 36.4%. A comfortable number for the green-and-yellow faithful, but far from a guaranteed stroll.
The detail that stands out: the Elo gap between the two sides is just 97 points, according to Marca. For a knockout tie at this level, that is a slim margin. Norway arrive with a genuine ability to make life difficult for Brazil, particularly if they can impose a physical, box-oriented game built on quick transitions.
The Golmetria model puts Brazil's chances of lifting the trophy at 5.54% — and the market, curiously, is even more sceptical, with an implied probability of 8.67%. There is a divergence there worth watching.
For Brazil, the danger is not Norway per se — it is walking onto the pitch believing that theoretical superiority will do the job on its own. Knockout football does not work that way. The Seleção needs intensity from the first minute, not a belated reaction when the scoreline starts to bite.
Norway know they are underdogs. And an underdog that knows it is dangerous.
5 July. New York. The sixth star or an early exit — there is no middle ground at a World Cup.