Spain arrive as Euro champions and tournament favourites — but their opener against Cabo Verde has more to it than meets the eye
The Group H opener has a clear favourite, but the numbers tell a more interesting story
Spain open their campaign on 15 June when Luis de la Fuente's side face Cabo Verde at Atlanta Stadium in a Group H opener that marks the first-ever meeting between the two nations. The Cape Verdeans arrive dreaming big: they put on a show in two warm-up friendlies and are determined to prove they belong on football's biggest stage.
Spain, for their part, did not arrive without blemish. In their pre-tournament friendlies they drew with Iraq and Egypt — results that raised a few eyebrows — before beating Peru and Serbia. None of that dims the shine of their most recent European Championship, but it is enough to plant a seed of doubt.
The numbers back the favourites. Golmetria's model gives Spain an 18.42% chance of lifting the trophy, placing them among the leading title contenders. But being the favourite doesn't win games: the opener still has to be settled on the pitch.
Cabo Verde, led by Pedro Leitão Brito, did not come to the World Cup to make up the numbers. They came to cause an upset. And the tournament's history is full of debutants who did exactly that in the opening round.
Spain are the favourites. Whether that is enough is for football to decide.