No right-back, the Azteca looming: is Tuchel's England ready for what's coming?
Two right-backs out, Congo's low block ahead and the Azteca waiting. Is Tuchel's England built to go deep at the World Cup?
England arrive at the World Cup round of sixteen with a problem on the right flank, an opponent determined to make life difficult, and a legendary stadium waiting just around the corner — if they get past tonight.
Jarell Quansah and Reece James are both out for the last-sixteen clash against DR Congo in Atlanta. Quansah twisted his ankle in the win over Panama; James has been carrying a muscle injury since the draw with Ghana. Tuchel could start Djed Spence again or turn to the versatile Ezri Konsa, normally a centre-back. "They're getting close," the manager said of the pair's return, but Wednesday's match won't wait for them.
And DR Congo have no intention of making it easy. Head coach Sébastien Desabre completely overhauled his tactical approach for stronger opponents: he ditched the four-man defensive line used for almost the entire qualifying campaign and switched to a five-at-the-back system. Against Portugal and Colombia in the group stage, Congo conceded just two goals in total. Gabriel Zakuani, a former Congo captain, was blunt: "There are holes in England," the ex-player told the BBC.
Tuchel, for his part, isn't dodging the subject. The manager admitted he expects Congo to try to "make life difficult" for his side — and that England need to be ready for exactly that.
On the other side of the bracket, Mexico have already secured their place in the last sixteen with a comfortable 2–0 win over Ecuador at the Estadio Azteca, a match that had been delayed by bad weather. Four games, four wins, zero goals conceded. If England advance, they head to Mexico's home ground — and the Azteca, with all its history and noise, would be the next challenge.
Golmetria's model gives England a 6.96% chance of lifting the trophy — a figure that climbs with every round cleared, but one that depends, first and foremost, on avoiding a repeat of the Iceland nightmare of 2016.
The question Atlanta will answer tonight: does Tuchel's England have the structure to go deep — or will they stumble precisely when the tournament starts getting real?