Football in numbers

GOLMETRIA

PT 🇧🇷 · EN 🇺🇸

← Back to analysis

Mbappé Took an Hour to Wake Up — and France Still Looks Unstoppable

Mbappé took over an hour to find his rhythm against Senegal — and France still finished the group stage as the most feared team at the 2026 World Cup.

Original Golmetria data graphic about France's World Cup campaign, in premium data-journalism style; no real photos, no real-person likenesses, no club or national crests.

A poor refereeing decision irritated Kylian Mbappé. The result: two goals on his debut against Senegal. That is the level of danger France carries into this World Cup.

According to The Guardian, it took just over an hour for Mbappé to hit his stride — but once he did, Senegal had no answer. With a squad that would be the envy of any nation on the planet, France's No. 10 already has his sights set on the title.

And it is not just him. Ousmane Dembélé dazzled with a hat-trick against Norway, while Michael Olise showed his class throughout the group stage. Didier Deschamps's France has no visible weak point.

Golmetria's model gives the French a 10.65% chance of lifting the trophy — the highest of all 48 nations — and a 57.74% probability of reaching the quarter-finals. The market, meanwhile, sees them as clear favourites, with an implied title probability of 17.86%.

Senegal, who fell to France in the group stage, still advanced and sit at 48.62% to get through the round of sixteen — proof that the African side did not come merely to make up the numbers.

But the question hanging in the air is the same one The Guardian asks without being able to answer: can anyone stop Deschamps and company before the final?