The Paraguay That Knocked Out Germany Is Now Setting Off Alarm Bells for France in the Round of 16
France arrive as favourites averaging 3.3 goals per game, but the Paraguay side that eliminated Germany cannot be ignored. See the full round-of-16 analysis.
Eliminating Germany on penalties was the most unlikely feat Paraguay have pulled off at this 2026 World Cup. And it is precisely that feat that has put France on high alert ahead of the round of 16.
According to an analysis by Gato Mestre in partnership with economist Bruno Imaizumi, published by ge, the most likely outcome of the tie is a 3–0 French victory. The numbers underpinning that projection are hard to dismiss.
France arrive with the highest average of shots on target per game (8.5) and 13 goals scored in the competition — an average of 3.3 per match. Paraguay, on the other hand, rank among the sides that shoot least: 7.3 attempts per game, with an average of just 0.8 goals. Defensively, the contrast is just as stark: the French are among the teams that concede the fewest shots, while Paraguay are the fourth side that allow the most — 19.8 per game.
Against Sweden, France registered 24 shots, 15 from inside the box, with a statistical potential of 2.76 goals. They scored three. Against Germany, Paraguay managed just seven shots, with a potential of 0.48 goals — they scored one and took it to penalties. Maximum efficiency, but at minimum volume.
The Golmetria model gives France an 11.39% chance of lifting the trophy — and the market sees Les Bleus as one of the leading contenders for the title.
But football does not respect spreadsheets. Of Paraguay's 29 shots at this World Cup, 13 came from aerial situations — and France have not conceded a single goal that way so far. It is a vulnerability that has not truly been tested yet.
"Sí, se puede," as Gato Mestre himself noted: however slim the possibility, it exists. Paraguay have already proved it once. The question is whether they can do it again — this time, without needing a penalty shootout.