Achilles Injury, 48 Caps and a World Cup: The Weight of Saka in Tuchel's Plans
Tuchel confirms special care with Saka after his Achilles injury, but believes England can dream of the title. The Golmetria model puts their chances at 6.88%.
Thomas Tuchel has admitted that Bukayo Saka still requires special attention in England's World Cup preparations. The Arsenal forward suffered an Achilles tendon injury in March and, although he returned to his club in time to contribute to their Premier League title win, he has continued to be managed between matches. Tuchel stated that the reconditioning process is ongoing within the national team environment, but stressed that Saka took a full part in the most recent training session.
With 14 goals in 48 appearances for England, Saka is central to the manager's plans. The uncertainty over his physical condition carries extra weight precisely because Tuchel acknowledges that having key players available could be decisive for a deep run in the tournament.
Despite conceding that history works against England — champions only once, in 1966 — Tuchel argued that a little luck combined with focus and belief could turn the side into a genuine title contender. The Golmetria model puts England's probability of winning the tournament at 6.8%, with a 13.0% chance of reaching the final and a 93.76% chance of advancing from the group stage.
The market, meanwhile, implies a 10.98% probability of an England title — slightly above the model's estimate.