Série B

Golmetria Index — Série B

Our strength rating (Elo, goals-based) next to the real Série B table and a season projection (promotion and relegation).

Season 2026 · 120 matches analysed · 5000 simulations · updated 2026-06-11

#	Club	Index	MP	Pts	GD	xPts	P10–P90	Title	Promotion	Releg
1	São Bernardo	1653	12	24	+10	66.8	53–80	21%	58%	1%
2	Vila Nova	1617	12	25	+7	66.0	53–80	19%	53%	1%
3	Sport Recife	1639	12	23	+8	65.2	52–78	16%	52%	1%
4	Novorizontino	1629	12	20	+7	61.9	49–75	10%	40%	1%
5	Fortaleza	1580	12	21	+4	60.9	47–74	8%	35%	2%
6	Criciúma	1574	12	20	+4	59.1	46–73	6%	30%	3%
7	Athletic Club	1561	12	18	+2	56.6	43–70	4%	22%	5%
8	Náutico	1521	12	19	+4	55.8	42–69	3%	20%	6%
9	Operário PR	1518	12	19	-1	55.5	42–69	3%	20%	6%
10	Cuiabá	1550	12	16	+2	54.5	41–68	3%	16%	7%
11	Atlético GO	1519	12	16	0	52.2	39–66	2%	12%	11%
12	Goiás	1478	12	17	-5	51.6	39–65	1%	10%	11%
13	Ceará	1476	12	16	0	51.1	38–65	1%	10%	13%
14	Juventude	1489	12	16	+2	50.8	37–65	1%	10%	13%
15	CRB	1476	12	14	-1	49.1	35–63	1%	8%	18%
16	Botafogo SP	1389	12	10	-1	40.9	28–54	0%	1%	43%
17	Avaí	1360	12	10	-5	39.2	27–53	0%	1%	51%
18	Londrina	1380	12	8	-8	38.9	26–53	0%	1%	52%
19	Ponte Preta	1322	12	8	-12	34.6	22–48	0%	0%	69%
20	América Mineiro	1269	12	3	-17	27.6	16–41	0%	0%	88%

xPts = expected points at season's end (P10–P90 is the likely range). Title / Promotion / Releg = probability of the title, promotion to Série A (top 4), and relegation. How the model works → Methodology

Where each club finishes — probability by final position (5000 simulations)

less likelymore likelyPromotionRelegation

Statistical analysis, not betting advice. 18+.