Tim Vickery's Warning: South America May Be Entering a Dark Age in World Football
Columnist Tim Vickery sees the World Cup result as a troubling sign for CONMEBOL. Brazil and Argentina face serious challenges before 2026.
For the first time at a World Cup held in North America, no South American side lifted the trophy. For Tim Vickery, a columnist who specialises in the continent's football, that fact is no coincidence — it's a symptom.
Writing for Trivela, Vickery sees the tournament that ended on Sunday as a warning signal for CONMEBOL. Argentina reached the final but were largely dominated throughout the match. And what comes next may be even more concerning: the trend, according to the columnist, points to a difficult cycle for the Albiceleste in the years that follow the Lionel Messi era — something similar to what has happened at other moments of generational transition.
Brazil does not escape the analysis unscathed either. Vickery's message applies to South American neighbours broadly, and the Seleção has its own ghosts to exorcise before the 2026 World Cup.
The Golmetria model's numbers reinforce the precarious picture: Brazil shows a zero-percent probability of reaching the quarter-finals in the simulated tournament, while Argentina, despite a higher Elo rating, has just a 6.92% chance of winning the title — with nearly 62% probability of finishing as runners-up.
In the betting markets, the odds also tell a curious story: Brazil and Argentina appear with similar implied probabilities, both below 11%, reflecting the genuine uncertainty surrounding the two biggest powers on the continent.
The 2026 World Cup is drawing closer. And the question Vickery poses — one no South American fan wants to hear — is: will the continent arrive prepared, or will it be watching from the outside once again?