Unstoppable Argentina, Stalled England and a Team Called Japan: What the Numbers Say Before the Final Group-Stage Round
Argentina yet to concede, England wasteful in front of goal, and Japan quietly turning heads. Here's what the data says ahead of the final group-stage matchday at the 2026 World Cup.
One shot on target conceded across two matches. That's it. Argentina arrive at the third round of the 2026 World Cup with the tournament's best defensive record — and a clean sheet still intact. Meanwhile, Messi missed a penalty and the team still scored five goals. Frightening.
The Golmetria model, developed in partnership with economist Bruno Imaizumi, gives Argentina a 20.1% chance of lifting the trophy — and projects the most likely result against Jordan as a 4–0 rout. Jordan have lost both of their opening matches and conceded four goals, with their defence showing a particular vulnerability to aerial balls, the source of 13 of the 26 shots they have faced.
In Group L, England lead with four points but have left a nagging question unanswered: 18 shots against Ghana, a statistical potential of 1.14 goals according to ge, and not a single one converted. That wastefulness cost them two points. The model gives England a 6.6% chance of the title — well below the market-implied figure of 13.3%. Panama, with zero points and zero goals scored, are the opponents, yet their defence has been quietly solid: just 13 shots conceded, numbers almost identical to England's own.
In Group K, Uzbekistan have shipped five against Portugal and three against Colombia — seven goals conceded, the third-worst tally among all 48 nations. DR Congo, who drew with Portugal and lost to Colombia, face Uzbekistan needing a win to keep their dreams alive. The model points to a 1–0 victory for the Congolese as the most likely scenario, according to ge.
And Japan? At 1.7% according to the model, their title odds may look slim — but the Asians' offensive efficiency at this tournament is a genuine warning to anyone who crosses their path in the knockout rounds.
The final group-stage matchday settles everything. Who holds their nerve under pressure?