No champion has retained the title on a different continent since Brazil in 1962 — Messi's Argentina wants to be the first
No champion has retained the title on a different continent since Brazil in 1962. Messi's Argentina wants to change that — but history is working against them.
More than six decades. That is how long world football has been waiting for a World Cup champion capable of defending the title on a different continent. Brazil did it in 1962, in Chile. Since then, no one has managed it. Now, Lionel Messi's Argentina wants to break that taboo — and the weight of the mission is enormous.
Recent history is sobering. According to Sky Sports, the three sides that arrived at a World Cup as reigning champions before France were all eliminated in the group stage. Germany, in 2018, finished behind Sweden, Mexico and South Korea. Spain were hammered 5–1 by the Netherlands in their very first match in 2014. Italy, in 2010, failed to get out of a group containing Paraguay, Slovakia and New Zealand. Even France, who came close to retaining the trophy in Qatar, were the exception to the pattern — not the rule.
Javier Zanetti, the former Argentina captain, acknowledges the difficulty himself. "Argentina arrive at this World Cup prepared, with a good mentality and a good squad," he told Sky Sports. But he added: "It is very hard to do it again."
The Golmetria model gives Argentina a 13.45% chance of winning the title — making them the outright favourite among all participants, with an Elo rating of 2113. Brazil appear just behind them in the South American pecking order, with a 5% probability of lifting the trophy according to the model. The market, meanwhile, sees the two sides as more evenly matched than the model suggests.
For Messi, lifting the trophy again would be the perfect full stop on a career that no longer needs to prove anything — but that, let's be honest, would love one more chapter.
The question that will hang in the air until the final whistle: could 2026 be the year history finally changes?